We’ve been waiting for years for electric and gasoline cars to catch up. Forecasts are increasingly pessimistic

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Barely three years, that is the time that Volvo assures that we will need for electric vehicles to match the prices of gasoline and diesel. Good news that hides another that is not so good: that they are equal in price does not mean that they are cheaper.

Smaller. The secret of a drop in the prices of electric cars. The batteries will be smaller and will have more autonomy. so it says Jim RowanCEO of Volvo, who assures that in just three years we will see electric cars at the same price as gasoline.

According to the manager’s accounts, in 2025 the prices of both cars should be equal, since the costs of manufacturing the batteries will be lower. But it does not suggest that lithium prices can go down, the key point will be that with less kWh more kilometers can be offered to drivers.

$100 per kWh. This has been for years the barrier that analysts have pointed to for the prices of gasoline and electric cars to reach parity. Various studies have pointed out in recent years that beyond the barrier of $100 per kWh cost for manufacturers, it will not be possible to cross the paths of combustion and electricity.

Analysts pointed out that these $100 per kWh should have been reached this same year 2022. It was also warned that it was possible that this cost price would not be reached until 2024. For now, the only certainty is that we are far of this figure, with averages of $120 per kWh.

Prices’ check. The figure at which gasoline and electricity will reach parity has been questioned of late. General Motors has just partnered with Vale, a Brazilian mining company, to guarantee the production of batteries for its electric cars. The Automobile group has also offered its figures. The cost of the battery per kWh is currently 140 dollars and in 2026 they expect to reach $70 per kWh.

It is not as good news as it seems. In the first place, because the border of 100 dollars per kWh to build electric cars at the price of gasoline is already beginning to fade. The market needs the costs of this key piece to be lower and, furthermore, it seems that only those companies that associate with mining companies will be able to access these prices.

mining for themselves. The rise in the price of lithium has been scandalous in the last two years. It has risen to over 700% and has questioned the viability of best-selling successes such as the Ford Mustang Mach E, whose price in Spain has risen by more than 16,000 euros. The future points to scarcity and a very tough funnel with a lack of mines to supply the entire supply of electric cars that is expected for the coming years.

The manufacturers’ solution is to opt for panic purchases and accept collaborations with mining companies. Stellantis has already taken positions with an investment of 50 million euros, but it is not the only one. bmw works in Argentina General Motors in California and Volkswagen an agreement was also reached in 2021 with Vulcan Energy.

The most expensive first. Parity between electric cars and gasoline has long been in the second half of the 2020s. In 2019 Bloomberg predicted that it would be in 2022 when we would see both curves intersect, but the headline had small print: would be the biggest cars. In the same article it was specified that it was not until 2030 when reductions in the production costs of these cars of between 30 and 25% were expected.

And this is exactly what is happening. With equal power, it is possible to buy a Mercedes EQS and an S-Class for the same price: more than 120,000 euros. Below these ultra-luxury models, the prices between gasoline and electric are further apart, not only in total cost for the buyer, but also in percentage terms. The usual thing in lower models is that the price differences exceed 10,000 euros and even exceed 15,000 euros in the most expensive models.

The industry begins to have doubts about whether it will really be possible to have cheap electric cars

equating up. What the CEO of Volvo has not said in his statements is whether the parity of the electric car and gasoline will be reached because the former will drop in price or because the latter will rise. The fact that both curves intersect in 2025 indicates that it will be something expected in premium firms, since Bloomberg has also noted In general, this is not expected until the end of the decade. Mercedes also put a figure for electricity-gasoline parity: $50 per kWh and there are reports that point to a increase in cost for the next years as a consequence of the scarcity of minerals.

Not only is it that it seems difficult for electric cars to drop soon. Combustion vehicles do not stop rising. In 2015, a gasoline car cost an average of just over 35,000 euros, in June of this year the price amounted to 44,000 euros. Added to this context are the measures of the European Union, whose greater demands in terms of safety and emissions point to an even higher price.

And as if that were not enough, manufacturers do not stop issuing notices: buying a car will become more and more expensive. At the same time that they launch another message: it is difficult to have electric cars of 20,000 euros.

Barely three years, that is the time that Volvo assures that we will need for electric vehicles to match the…

Barely three years, that is the time that Volvo assures that we will need for electric vehicles to match the…

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