These are your chances of getting there

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Right now, to the south of the Canary Islands, a zone of low pressure (Invest 90L) is developing rapidly. According to the National Hurricane Center from the United States, which monitors the entire Atlantic, there is a 70% chance that it will end up becoming a tropical cyclone in the next few days. A very rare cyclone, one that instead of following the trade winds towards America, will climb latitude close to the African coast and has a high probability of ending up affecting the Canary Islands.

What can happen? While Hurricane Fiona prepares to enter Canada’s weather books and tropical storm Gascón affects the Azores, the uncertainties about invest 90L are high. For practical purposes there are two big questions: if the tropical cyclone will form and if that cyclone will affect the Canary Islands. The first, as the hours go by, seems more and more likely. The second is still a huge unknown.

In the first place, because there are not many antecedents of a formation of this type in this area of ​​the Atlantic. As Tomer Burg explainedIf we search historical databases, the closest recorded storm to Invest 90L was Tropical Storm ‘Ginger’ in 1967. Ginger started its journey north, but soon turned west and began an extratropical transition that undid it very quickly. Little time. Will something similar happen with Invest 90L?


The Northern Way… The truth is that if we look at the different scenarios we can see that Ginger’s “like fate” is not out of the question at all. Nevertheless, the presence of an “extratropical trough” north of Invest 90L (responsible for this weekend’s showers) makes those reassuring scenarios more unlikely with each passing minute.

Will it reach the Canary Islands?. That is the bad news, little by little, the scenarios in which Invest 90L produces a high impact in the western Canary Islands are gaining weight. Especially if as González Alemán suggestswe chose to use deterministic prediction models (something that, seeing the low resolution of the rest of the models and the short time interval, makes all the sense in the world).

However, what is worrying is the trend. Because, for example, “according to the European model IFS-ECMWFthe probability that the tropical cyclone -if it forms- will directly impact the Canary Islands in 72 hours is about 20%-30%”. Something fantastic and that he signed right now. Because the problem is that these figures are growing little little by little and it doesn’t seem that they are going to stop doing it in the near future The trend: the trend, right now, is the problem.


What options are there? Bearing in mind that “the uncertainty between the possible scenarios that are handled is still high”, it is too soon to know what will happen. However, that “does not mean that preventive measures should be taken“in El Hierro, La Gomera, La Palma and the rest of the islands.

Do not forget that, although the water will come in handy for some islands that are also hit by drought, due to “the complex orography of the Islands, there could be intense local effects accompanying floods” even in low-impact scenarios. We will have to be very attentive to the AEMET because things can get very twisted in a few hours.

Doesn’t it have a name? Not yet, but if the NHC is right, it’s a matter of hours. What explained José Miguel Viñas from Meteored, “if it is finally formed and given a name, (Invest 90L) it will be called Hermine or Ian”. It will be one or the other “depending on how fast or slow it evolves with respect to the tropical system located north of Venezuela.”

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Right now, to the south of the Canary Islands, a zone of low pressure (Invest 90L) is developing rapidly. According…

Right now, to the south of the Canary Islands, a zone of low pressure (Invest 90L) is developing rapidly. According…

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