from here we will only decrease

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The book of Genesis (1:28) made it clear. “Be fruitful and multiply; fill the earth, and subdue it.” The humanity fulfilledand although it was somewhat slow in the process, later the thing exploded. Until now.

200 years of population explosion. It is estimated that there were about 300 million people in the world when Jesus Christ was born. It took us 1,800 years to reach 1,000 million inhabitants worldwide, but from there things accelerated (much).

Today United Nations has declared this November 15, 2022 as the “Day of 8,000 million”. We will be even more soon, without a doubt, but the times of that unbridled growth that has added 7,000 million people in the last two centuries seems to be coming to an end.

We will never grow as fast as in the last 12 years. It is what it took us to go from 7,000 to 8,000 million inhabitants on Earth. A frantic pace that, however, is already beginning to slow down: United Nations estimates indicate that it will take about 15 years to reach 9,000 million inhabitants, but it is not so clear that we will reach 10,000 million. If we do and surpass them, it won’t be by much based on current projections. From there, we will fall.

The empty world: more and more experts are convinced that the growth of the world's population is about to collapse

Forecasts that can change. The United Nations model is essentially based on fertility, migration and mortality rates. These factors are clearly influenced by the evolution of our world: the world population is becoming urban at a forced march (in 2050, 66% of the population will live in cities, according to forecasts), but events such as the pandemic may cause those estimates are off.

Falling birth rates. The truth is that here there is also a great cultural change: future parents want to have two children “on average”, and the large families of before in Spain (four or more children) are not those of today (in 1994 it became three or more children). The fall of the birth it is noticeable in recent years throughout the world, and especially pronounced in Asia and North Africa.

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Estimated birth rate between 1950 and 2021, and forecast until 2050. Image: United Nations.

To school. Not only that: that there are more and more children and especially girls at school and studying according to a study from a decade ago in Science the essential factor behind the falling birth rate. Migration movements also have an influence, especially in developed countries, but even that does not seem to cause the forecasts to change significantly.

Is there food for so many? Patrick Gerland, responsible for these estimates at the United Nations, explained to National Geographic how “so far the general experience is that the world has been successful in adapting and finding solutions to our problems. I think we need to be somewhat optimistic.” Still, he stresses that “doing nothing is not an option” and humanity must act to fight threats like climate change.

Wait, China is no longer the most populous country. This demographic evolution It has also given recent surprises, such as the “demographic sorpasso” that has meant that China is no longer the most populous country in the world. now it is india (or will be in a few months). It is difficult to calculate it, because the censuses in some regions of our planet are late or imprecise.

The Chinese (and Indians) are getting older. Asia, yes, begins to age (well, like the rest of the world), and the great engine of population growth is according to the United Nations in Africa. Nigerian Middle Ages is 17 years, less than half of China. Despite the extreme poverty suffered by a third of the population, it is anticipated that Nigeria’s current 216 million people could become more than 800 million by the end of the century. And yet…

The population explosion is coming to an end. All the models reveal that what happened in the last two centuries will not be repeated. The United Nations situate currently the cap at 10.400 million people. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna Indian in 2018 that the population will grow to 9.7 billion in 2070 and will fall to 9 billion by the end of the century.

For its part, the Seattle Institute for Health Metrics predicts 9.7 billion also in 2064, but the fall according to them it will be more pronounced and in 2100 the population will be 8.8 billion or less. The conclusion is clear: we will continue to grow for the next four decades, but from then on the human population will most likely begin to decline, something unprecedented in the history of our planet.

Image: chuttersnap

The book of Genesis (1:28) made it clear. “Be fruitful and multiply; fill the earth, and subdue it.” The humanity…

The book of Genesis (1:28) made it clear. “Be fruitful and multiply; fill the earth, and subdue it.” The humanity…

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